The AfD is about to win a German state election for the first time.

INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY

The AfD is about to win a German state election for the first time. Saxony-Anhalt votes tomorrow with the far-right party polling at 41–43% — nearly double the CDU's 22–23%. That's a 20-point swing since 2021. Every other party refuses to govern with them, so even if they win, forming a government could be deadlocked for months. If enough small parties miss the 5% threshold, the AfD could reach an absolute majority. The election is the first of three German state votes this month and i