Central African Republic: How Russia Lost the Ability to Leave the Central African Republic

INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY

[African Arguments] When armed groups attacked the border post of Am-Dafok in northeastern CAR on 30 June 2026, most analysts asked the familiar question: who was behind the attack, and how resilient is Russia's presence? The right question is different. Why can Russia not simply leave the Central African Republic -- even if it wanted to? The answer changes how we understand the nature of external military presence in post-patronage Africa.